Oct 18, 2013

UFC 166 Predictions

Via UFC Newsletter
When asked Cain Velasquez said that this is most likely not the last time he and Junior Dos Santos face each other.  Junior on the other hand believes this will be the last time.  Not exclusive to the realm of fighting, three is a number that is huge in our collective psyches.  Three strikes you’re out, the holy trinity(for you Catholics), Neapolitan ice cream, and more movie trilogies than can be counted here.  So there is some credence that’s lent to the notion that this will be the last fight.  But there’s a huge exception, if we’re left wanting more then there MUST be a fourth fight.  Whether we get a fourth will be determined on whether Junior can either win the belt or make it a close and compelling fight.

UFC Heavyweight Championship
The fire looks f*ckin' terrified.

Cain Velasquez (c) v. Junior dos Santos

Doctor Law: I’m going to get this pick wrong. I’ve accepted it. You should too. Before their first matchup (a week before we became a website), I was convinced that Cain was going to crush Junior. JDS made me look like an ass in about 64 seconds. Before their second fight, I convinced myself that JDS had Cain’s number and was going to put him out again. One 25 minute beating later by Cain and I’m an ass again. So I’m picking JDS because I think he seems really nice. Chances are that I’m horribly wrong. I’ll be wrong again picking their 4th fight…and their 5th...and so on. JDS by 2nd round KO.

Kid Presentable: If they fought 100 times... well then it would still be a toss up. They are one a piece against each other and it really seems like it comes down to who gets that first big punch.  I found it curious as well that this fight was being marketed as the FINAL CHAPTER seeing as these guys are both relatively young still and clearly at a different level than the rest of the division. Regardless of the outcome, more fights are coming here. My heart leans towards JDS here as I think he is simply a more charismatic champion, and no doubt does he have the best hands in the division and generally tremendous takedown defense. Cain's pressure is something else though, and this fight early on is definitely going to resemble their second go. I can't guarantee who will get the first shot, but I am certain of the pressure that Cain will bring. Cain by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Geez, what a tough fight to call. Easily one of the most competitive and interesting trilogies we’ve seen in the UFC.  However, I’m siding with Cain on this one. My honest opinion is that this fight is a coin toss where I think either guy could pull off a victory but if I had to choose one over the other (and that’s pretty much the point of these) I just feel like Cain has more tools to get this done. That being said, Junior cracking Cain again seems just as likely has Cain pulling off another victory. I think as long as Cain can avoid the napalm punches early in the fight I think he can out work Junior to another decision victory. Cain by decision.

Lavender Gooms: If you look back to the predictions for Junior and Cain’s second fight in UFC 155, you will notice only one person picked Cain to win.  This means you should listen to my prediction.  For completely selfish reasons I want Junior to win.  While I love Junior and think he has a great shot of winning this match with his superb boxing and underrated ground game and takedown defense, my head tells me that Cain is the complete package.  This fight won’t  go exactly how the second fight went.   Junior will likely be more aggressive in his stand up and probably will mix a takedown .  However, the fight will end with the same result after five rounds, albeit a much closer decision.  Cain by decision.

Picking Velasquez: DJ Mark, Gooms, Kid P
Picking dos Santos: Dr. Law

Someone took the time to make this.
Daniel Cormier v. Roy Nelson

Doctor Law: Cormier is going to 205 after this fight and it looks like Roy Nelson might be headed that way too. If that’s the case, I’m ok with just waiting until they both actually make 205 pounds. As it stands now, this fight seems incredibly pointless. Fun, but pointless. Anyways, Daniel Cormer is really good. Roy Nelson is pretty good. Really good > pretty good. Roy has one chance of winning this fight and that’s with his big right hand. I think Cormier finds a way to get it done here; either by holding Roy against the fence, peppering him with strikes or ground & pound. Cormier is too good to lose this fight. Sorry Roy. Cormier by decision.

Kid Presentable: Speed, speed, and speed. Cormier's possesses speed by the barrel full. Roy is a really fun fighter to watch and is greatly skilled across the board, but he has never been able to crack into that top 5. Whenever Roy seems like he's just on the verge, he drops a fight in a typically one-sided fashion before going back to decking back end guys with that over hand right. I do not see Cormier being one of those guys though. The speed advantage leads me to think that Roy will get peppered for a couple rounds and at the point when he is a little beat up or tired, Roy will throw in some takedowns just for good measure to stamp the point home. It is unfortunate though in the sense that win or lose Cormier wants to cut to 205. So why are we even having this title eliminator fight then? Cormier by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This seems like another great test to see where Daniel stacks in the HW division, the only problem I have with this is that we’ve already seen Daniel tested a number of times and he’s passed them all. I honestly feel like he should be fighting someone who’s higher in the rankings then Roy but seeing how Daniel wants to move down to LHW I totally understand the UFC not wanting Daniel to topple a top contender. I feel like Daniel has all the tools to beat Roy, but I’m not totally ruling out Roy getting a surprise KO either. The smart money is on Daniel and I like to think I’m pretty smart, Daniel by decision.

Lavender Gooms: If both of these guys are planning on dropping to light heavy weight, why couldn’t we just wait a few months and see this fight at 205.  In the match up of deceptively athletic fat guys, Cormier will dictate the fight in any position.  Besides the overhand right, Nelson has no other way he can win.  Considering that Cormier is much faster than Roy, the chances of that right landing are close to none.  Roy will also be unable to stop the takedowns of the former Olympian.  Nelson’s granite chin keeps this tilt from ending in a KO. Cormier by unanimous decision.

Picking Cormier: Dr. Law, DJ Mark, Gooms, Kid P
Picking Nelson:

Young Diego was Gilbert's hair role model
Gilbert Melendez v. Diego Sanchez

Doctor Law: This should be a good scrap. Gilbert Melendez is a ridiculous favorite in this favorite. I’m talking like 5 to 1. I’m not saying that he isn’t going to win, because he absolutely will, but Diego Sanchez shouldn’t be counted out. Diego has lost to exactly one man at 155 lbs and that was BJ Penn (watch it when you get a chance. Biggest ass-kicking I’ve ever seen in a title fight). Also, Diego is very capable of winning decisions in fights no one actually thought he won (see: M. Kampmann and T. Gomi fights). Gilbert is a top 3 lightweight and should win this fight, but Diego still has a shot. Melendez by decision

Kid Presentable: On the chance that this fight might launch Gilbert into a title shot next, it makes me really hope to the heavens that Josh Thomson does not win his fight. That out of the way I am pretty excited for this fight. For all the crazy that is Diego, and due to the one sided walloping he received at the hands of one BJ Penn, people forget that Diego's run to the LW title was actually fairly impressive. He was big and strong for the class, and his pressure and heart will always give him a chance in his fight. Lets not forget that in the final rounds of Bendo and Gilbert, neither fighter really looked like they wanted it. That will never be a problem Diego has. I think Gilbert wins cause he's simply too talented, but I think Diego makes it look far more competitive than the lines would have it. Gilbert by 29-28 decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This one has fight of the night written all over it. For the most part these guys always have exciting, crazy fights and on paper I’m excepting as much here. I feel like Gilbert has the edge looking pretty good in his last fight losing a close decision to then champion Ben Henderson. Diego has been jumping around divisions, but is back where he’s looked best in his career at 155. Both guys really need a win but I can’t go against my boy Gilbert. Gilbert by TKO ground n pound 3rd round 3:45.

Lavender Gooms: On paper this is a clear mismatch.  Melendez is arguably the best lightweight in the world, while Sanchez hasn’t been relevant as a title contender since he got domed by BJ Penn.  However, Sanchez is a master at muddying up a fight which can allow him to stay in fights or even win those he should have lost (Kampmann, Martin).  Melendez is better than Sanchez in every way you can think of.  But we’ve seen Sanchez take a beating and keep coming.  If Melendez can stop Sanchez I think we’ll see a title fight in his near future.  Melendez by decision.

Picking Melendez: Dr. Law, DJ Mark, Gooms, Kid P
Picking Sanchez:

He's super cereal!
Shawn Jordan v. Gabriel Gonzaga

Doctor Law: I’m not picking against Gabriel Gonzaga. Sure he has about 90 seconds of gas in this tank and gets in stand up fights despite the fact that he isn’t all that good at standup. That doesn’t matter to me. He makes crazy ass faces and jumps into walls. He finds a way to win this fight. Jordan may be athletic, young, powerful and capable of landing a backflip, but that doesn’t matter to Nepao. It’s not like Jordan can hit him with the backflip. How cool would it be if he did though? Gonzaga by 1st round submission.

Kid Presentable: 3 heavyweight fights on the main card... someone has to get a finish right? Shawn Jordan is an interesting prospect in that he's far tougher and more athletic than you would give him credit for just on the eye test. I am not sure yet where I see any discernible strengths from him, and every fight of his I feel like there are holes that can be capitalized on. Gonzaga in his second go with the UFC has been like the heavyweight Maia (Shields fight excluded) realizing "Oh yeah, I'm pretty good at this grappling thing." Gonzaga by submission 2nd round.

DJ Mark with a “K”: There always seems to be one fight on every PPV card that raises an eyebrow, this is that fight. However while these types of fights have no real factor on their division they can be fun from time to time. I think this could be a decent match but I honestly would have rather had one of the more interesting prelim fights here in its place. That being said I’m taking Jordan. The few times I saw him in StrikeForce I thought he had a lot of potential.  Jordan by 3rd round TKO 1:54

Lavender Gooms: For some reason Bobby loves Gonzaga.  He’s ok I guess.  I think I like him because he looks like he could be the missing link.  Evolutionary importance aside it will be short night for Napao.  Jordan is a pretty good athlete and impressive punching power.  Jordan by KO in 2nd round.

Picking ManBearPig: Dr. Law (a true believer), Kid P
Picking Jordan: DJ Mark, Gooms

$5 on Dodson
John Dodson v. Darrell Montague

Doctor Law: Darrell Montague makes his UFC debut after years of people having him on their flyweight rankings. Full disclosure: I know very little about Montague. I know he fights at 125 lbs and that his nickname is the Mongoose. That’s it. I do know about John Dodson though. He has a stupid-ass nickname, but he’s an awesome fighter. He came incredibly close to taking Demetrious Johnson’s flyweight title. Taking on Dodson is a tall task for anyone, but asking someone in their UFC debut to do it is almost cruel. Dodson + UFC jitters = pain. Dodson by 2nd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: What I know about Montague is that he is a ranked fighter in the division based on a few different web sites told me so. I still don't even know if it "Mon-tuh-hugh" or "Mon-tawg." What I know about Dodson is that he took it to Mighty Mouse better than anyone else so far at the division and I would like to see that rematch. Dodson by KO round 2.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Darrell Montague is a promising young fighter making his UFC debut. On paper he’s a top Flyweight but I think they are really starting him off rough giving him the extremely dangerous and somewhat annoying John Dodson. I think Dodson has this one. Dodson by KO 2nd round 3:22

Lavender Gooms: Dodson has gotten better with each fight he’s had since leaving the Ultimate Fighter house.  His experience fighting top level guys and his higher than average punching power for flyweight makes him a bad, bad man.  There’s also the Lavender Gooms special to consider.  When in doubt pick the guy you know.  Dodson by KO in 3rd round.

Picking Dodson: Dr. Law, DJ Mark, Gooms, the Presentable one
Picking Montague:

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