May 25, 2012

UFC 146 Predictions

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UFC Heavyweight Championship:
Junior Dos Santos (c) v. Frank Mir

Doctor Law: This card has had a lot of twists and turns. The biggest one was Alistair Overeem confirming everybody’s suspicions about him and getting himself kicked off this card (“removed myself” my ass Alistair). Frank Mir steps in for Alistair and has the opportunity to become a three time UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he is facing a very uphill battle. JDS has been on a tear and the only way Mir wins this fight is to somehow get this fight to ground. If it gets there, Junior is screwed. I don’t care how solid JDS’s ground game is; Mir will start ripping body parts off if you go to the ground with him. Fortunately for the champ, the fight starts standing. JDS by 1st round KO.

Kid Presentable: First off, Frank Mir absolutely deserves this shot. He has been on a nice strong win streak and is a former champion himself. It just lacks the sex bombness that was the Reem vs JDS. Mir might be the most dangerous man on the mat in the division, but JDS has some very impressive takedown defense. In Mir's previous fight, by all means Big Nog should have put him away, but his hubris and decision to go for the sub got the best of him. JDS will not make that mistake. Combine that with better hand speed and greater power, and Frank will have a short night before he takes a nap. Junior by KO round 1.

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DJ Mark with a “K”: While it’s sad that Reem got popped for elevated levels of manliness Mir is a decent last minute replacement. UFC has done a good job playing up the” revenging the master” angle (Mirs last win was over JDS's coach/mentor) but on paper I got JDS all over this one. His punching power has been unmatched so far in his UFC run and a lot of people question Mir's stand up/chin/heart, as I do. This isn’t a complete blow out though since I think Mir can sub anyone when it hits the mat, I just don’t think he’ll be able to get it there and keep JDS long enough to crank an arm or wrap up a choke. JDS by KO 2nd Rnd.

Lavender Gooms: Frank Mir is a bad dude. You have GOT to be a bad dude to get rocked like he was against Noguiera, get taken to the ground and somehow flip it so that you’re the one breaking arms and getting the W. I’ve got nothing but props and respect for Mir and I do not believe it would be as big a upset if Mir were to win as some may believe it to be….But Junior is going to put it on him. Junior’s striking is on or above any level Mir has experienced AND that hand speed will leave Mir guessing. I don’t see Mir having much of a chance to get it to the ground where he has his best chance of pulling out the win. I like Mir, but after he’s been knocked out in the first round, I’ll really be wishing Overeem wasn’t too much man for mortal testosterone tests. Dos Santos by TKO in 1st round.

Picking Dos Santos: All of us
Picking Mir:

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Cain Velasquez v. Antonio Silva

Doctor Law: Velasquez was originally supposed to be taking on Mir in this fight, but now takes on the Big Foot Silva. No one thinks more highly of Big Foot Silva than Silva himself. I just watched the preview show where he said he had the "best striking, best BJJ and best wrestling" in the heavyweight division. He is wrong about all of that. Very wrong. Cain is going to throw shade all over Big Foot ( just learned that phrase this week…I had to use it). Cain by 2nd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: Cain is the better striking, more experienced Daniel Cormier. I expect Cain to style all over Bigfoot just as DC did in their previous bout. Unfortunately the history and track record of Bigfoot's fights implies that even in victory Cain is probably going to walk away with a broken hand from that big ass dome of Silva's. Cain by TKO, round 2.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Another fight that got changed around, but still manages to be interesting on paper. Cain is the easy favorite in this one as Big Foot has been inconsistent when facing top competition. The real question is how long into the fight in till Cain breaks his hand on Big Foot stone like skull. If Cain can get out of the fight without breaking his hand that will be a true victory. Cain by TKO 1st rnd.

Lavender Gooms: In his last fight, Silva lost to Daniel Cormier in the Strikeforce GP. In his next fight he gets Cormier’s training partner, who just happens to be the former Heavyweight champ. Whatever Silva is good at, Cain is better(except BJJ). Silva won’t be able to keep Cain down so his jiu-jistu won’t come into play in this fight. Cain’s biggest worry in the fight is figuring out how not to break his hand on Silva’s adamantium encased skull. While there will be a Big Foot sighting on Saturday, it will only be brief. Cain by TKO in the 2nd round.

Picking Velasquez: All of us
Picking Silva:

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Roy Nelson v. Dave Herman

Doctor Law: As with all of these fights, this one started as a different matchup. It was first Roy Nelson v. Big Foot. Then Big Foot got bumped up to fight Cain. Then it became Roy Nelson v. Gabriel Gonzaga, but Gonzaga got hurt. Now Roy takes on Dave “Pee Wee” Herman. Roy kinda trains hard and Pee Wee doesn’t train hard enough. Also, Roy is better than Pee Wee in everything. Big Country by 2nd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: Peewee is an entertaining guy, but he'll never be a top contender. The same can kind of be said for Roy, but Roy is a notch above Herman still. I kind of seeing this fight playing out similarly to the Struve fight in which it will be a little bit back and forth, a feeling out period in the first, then Roy will just land something in the second that puts Herman down. Peewee didn't show much heart in rallying back in the Struve fight, and it's not gonna get any easier here. Roy by TKO round 2.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This is an interesting matchup between two of the more charismatic heavyweights in the UFC. Herman’s downfall is that he just doesn’t take MMA all that seriously. He doesn’t train hard but has been able to get away with it due to his natural athleticism. However, I think we started to see in his last fight that natural gifts alone aren’t enough to truly succeed in the UFC. Roy uses his grit and ground game to get the W here. Roy by decision.

Lavender Gooms: Junior Dos Santos couldn’t knock Big Country out. He doesn’t get submitted either cause the dude’s BJJ is on point as well. So what Herman is left with is winning a likely hard fought decision. I haven’t seen Herman display the gas tank to get that done. Nelson will place his ample (but not as much as he used to have) belly under Herman’s chin and finish the fight with some ol’fashioned ground and pound. Nelson by TKO in 3rd round.

Picking Nelson: All of us (notice a trend?)
Picking Herman:

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Stipe Miočić v. Shane del Rosario

Doctor Law: I’m really excited for this fight. These two guys could be the future of the heavyweight division. I’m a big fan of del Rosario’s. He looked great in Strikeforce, but the car accident he got in really slowed down his momentum. I’m not terribly impressed with Stipe, but he has a bunch of credentials and support from the media that all scream “must see prospect.” I want to pick Shane, but I’m sick of all of us agreeing. Stipe by decision.

Kid Presentable: Of these two heavyweight prospects I had liked Shane a bit more, but he is coming off a long layoff due to a car accident where the injuries were thought to be potentially career ending at one point. Ring rust has proven to be a legit concern time and time again but Stipe just hasn't been as impressive as advertised. I think Shane has a bit better standup and though Stipe is a solid wrestler he is a little green still and I could see Del Rosario getting the tap. Shane by submission round 3.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This should be an awesome stand up war. I’ve been impressed with Shane for a while now and I think he’s a decent HW prospect. However the exact same could be said for Stipe. Honestly, I just really like it when talent from other decent sized organizations (Strikeforce/Bellator/Dream) come to the UFC, even though it rarely goes the way I want it to. Shane by TKO 3rd rnd.

Lavender Gooms: I won’t lie to my half dozen fans out there. I haven’t seen either of these guys fight. Shane holds a victory against Lavar Johnson in his previous fight but hasn’t fought in 14 months as a result of a horrific car accident. As a result, you have to wonder how much recovering from grievous injuries in addition to being out for that long will affect him. I have no idea who to pick, but instead of flipping a coin (played out) I rolled dice to choose who I’d pick for this fight. Odd for Miocic, Even for Rosario. It just came up sixes folks, I’m going with Rosario. Rosario by submission in 2nd round.

Picking Miocic: Dr. Law
Picking Del Rosario: Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms

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Stefan Struve v. Lavar Johnson

Doctor Law: This was supposed to Mark Hunt v. Struve, but the Super Samoan got hurt about a week ago. Props to Lavar for taking the fight on such short notice. Unfortunately, he is about to get wrapped up Struve’s crazy long legs. Lavar isn’t good on the ground. Pat Barry took him down, mounted him and almost finished him with an Americana. That’s all you need to know. Struve via 1st round submission.

Kid Presentable: Another heavy handed fighter looking to make a highlight out of the hilarious when collapsing skyscraper that is Stefan Struve. Hopefully this will be the fight where Struve learns to use a jab properly but I don't have high hopes. That said, Lavar was taken down and mounted by Pat Barry so Struve will have no problem doing the same if not worst. Let's just hope he's smart enough to not tempt fate on the feet for too long and this can be a nice win for Stefan. Stefan by submission round 1.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Like I mentioned in the Shane/Stipe prediction, I like seeing guys from other organizations come to the UFC and mix it up. Honestly, I didn’t think Lavar would have mad as big of a splash as he has in the UFC. That’s most due to smart match making which placed him in fights where he had a good chance to win. This fight will easily be his hardest yet. Stefan’s main strength is working on the mat and that’s where Lavar is the weakest. Even though logic dictates an easy win here for Stefan, I’m going with Lavar. Lavar 2nd rnd TKO.

Lavender Gooms: Lavar “I have three elbows” Johnson fights the “Skyscraper” in the opening match of an all heavyweight tilt. I like Struve a lot because the man doesn’t know how to have a boring fight. But for him to take the next step he has to learn how to consistently use his freakish height to his advantage. If he can use his range to keep Johnson’s potent hands out of reach and get the fight to the ground (which I think he’ll do), Struve will come out the winner. Struve by TKO in 3rd round.

Picking Struve: Dr. Law, Kid P, Gooms
Picking Johnson: DJ Mark

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