Apr 26, 2013

UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen Predictions

The fight between the two head coaches of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter is finally upon us. Will it be another notch in Jones reign of terror, or as Razor... I mean Chael says, will it be one more for the Bad Guy? Say what you will about Sonnen deserving this shot, but it is here, and when this man speaks the whole MMA world listens.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Jon "Bones" Jones (c) vs. Chael P. Sonnen 

Kid Presentable: I fully plan to watch this fight sporting my Nike "Bones Jones" shoes that I managed to cop in the 4 minutes before they completely sold out while wearing my Nike "Chael Knows" t-shirt. If you know anything about this sport you already know how long the odds are on Chael so I don't need to get into all that. Instead I will tell you of my internal struggle of having championed Jones' hype train from the get go vs. Chael Sonnen being a fellow Oregon Duck. I have no doubt Chael will come to fight, but Jones doesn't have the gaping hole in wrestling ability that made the Anderson Silva fights so compelling. I do not believe Chael will get Jones down because Jon has an ability to just front headlock anyone out of a takedown attempt due to his freakish range. This fight belongs to Jones and will likely get a RNC or modified guillotine whenever he feels like it... but damn the logic. Chael by decision.

DJ Marc with a "K": It’s really hard to logically think that Chael is going to be able to move up a weight class and be able to dethrone the champ, at least I think it is. What is easy to believe is that Chael is going to go straight after Jones. How Jones reacts to this pressure is what will, more or less, determine the fight. I think Jones has all the advantages to be able to beat Sonnen here but you can never fully count out Chael. I see Chael struggling to get the distance he needs to shoot and will be forced to either stand with Jones or clinch with him. Either way I see Jones catching Sonnen with a choke during a grappling scramble. Jones by 2nd round submission (modified Guillotine Choke) 3:57.

Doctor Law: We all know how we got to this point: Hendo, UFC 151, fucking sport killer, Vitor, Pizza w/ extra chicken, TUF. It’s finally time to watch Jonny “Bones” Jones fight another middleweight. Jokes aside, it’s going to be really difficult for Chael to win this fight. We all know how he has to do it: take Jones down. That’s easier said than done. Unlike most people, I do believe that Chael will take Jones down. However, I don’t think he’s going to be able to do it more than once. I’m going to give you a detailed prediction. Fight starts…Chael marches across the cage and double legs Jones down…2 minutes of nothing…Jones gets up and starts opening up a can of whoop ass. Round 2 starts…Jones is ramping up the beating…Chael shoots desperately and gets stuffed…Jones is on top…elbow…elbow…elbow…elbow…elbow…fight over. Jones by 2nd round TKO.

Lavender Gooms: The last season of the Ultimate Fighter as a resounding success in many ways. Above all this season showcased some very promising(and an absolute killer in Uriah Hall) fighters in the middleweight division, a new camera style that gets the “Gooms seal of approval.” A surprise for the season was how cordial and friendly Jones and Sonnen were to each other. What’s up Sonnen? Where’s the WWE style shit talk whenever Jones passes you in the hallway? We were all expecting Sonnen to run his yap the whole time there and watch Jones either awkwardly try talking back or watch him sit on a rock and meditate. I give Sonnen a chance in this fight. While Jones may have better takedown defense, Anderson Silva and Jones to an extent are similar to each other. If Sonnen comes into the octagon with the same fearlessness he had against The Spider and gets in Jones’ face and takes him to the ground(and doesn’t throw a mind boggling spinning back elbow), he MAY have a shot. But Jones has looked better with each fight he has had, displaying a new facet to his craft. While it would be fun to see Dana White put the belt around “The Guy” aka “The People’s Champ” aka Chael Sonnen, this fight will be another victory for Jonny Bones. Jones by submission 2nd round.

Picking Jones: Really its all of us...
Picking Sonnen: but I still have to say Go Ducks

Alan "Fat Johnny Cash" Belcher vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping  

Doctor Law: Alan Belcher has been asking for this fight for years. He’s one of about 20 middleweights that have been calling out Bisping for the past five years. It’s pretty clear why they do it. Bisping isn't terribly liked and he has a really big name. He’s always in either the main event or co-main event. The other middleweights seem to think he’s pretty beatable…until they fight him. Bisping doesn't lose to middleweights unless they are on TRT. Belcher is an exceptional striker, but I think he has to get a finish to win this fight. Bisping is really good at making guys fight at his pace, which allows the Brit to pepper his opponent with strikes. Belcher is good enough to knock out Bisping, but I don’t think he’s going to get it done. Bisping by decision.

Lavender Gooms: Two fighters that had they won their respective last fights, wouldn't be fighting each other and would be much closer to fighting for gold. Good chance most of this fight is fought standing. It should be a close fight but I give the edge to Bisping and his sharp, technical and no power
boxing. Bisping by decision.

DJ Marc with a "K": This fight should be a pretty entertaining stand up match. The real difference between the two being the power that Belcher has and the power that Bisping seems to lack. Even so I still think Bisping is going to pull of the win here. I think standing they will be pretty even but I think Bisping is going to try and steal rounds with takedowns and some ground control. Bisping by decision.

Kid Presentable: I appreciate the hype both guys attempted to put into this fight which was barely shown outside of the countdown show. Part of me feels like Bisping did get legitimately worried about the betting stakes Belcher was trying to put on the fight. This is typically the level of opponent Bisping feasts on but I have never really seen someone class Belcher on the feet as that is kind of his thing. Bisping could wrestle this one out, but I don't think he has the top control of Okami to just stall this one out. Belcher by decision.

Picking Belcher: Kid P
Picking Bisping: Gooms, Doc Law, DJ Marc

Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo 
Image via pruvology.com

Lavender Gooms: I made fun of Bobby during last week’s podcast when he said he would take Nelson in this fight, saying that Nelson would win by predictably throwing a few jabs and landing the overhand right. But thinking about it now….that’s not too crazy a prediction. Kongo’s chin hasn’t been stellar recently and he’ll fall victim to the damage Nelson is going to put on him. And if it becomes a grappling contest, then Kongo is really screwed, which is really a shame because looks so badass. Nelson by KO in 1st round.

Kid Presentable: Straight up, Kongo is either getting flat-lined or it's could be an uneventful decision. Roy has his overhand right, and Kongo has his stall clinch every other fight. Of course Roy is a very serviceable grappler in his own right which is why I lean toward his hand connecting on the chiseled dome of Kongo. "Chiseled dome?" you say? Well look at that guy, everything is chiseled. Roy by kung fu fighting in round 1.

Doctor Law: Given their size and usual lack of athleticism, it’s not hard to find a bad heavyweight fight. In this division full of guys capable of stinking up the building, Cheick Kongo may be king. They say he’s a French kickboxer, but his unwillingness to strike appears to suggest otherwise. Holding guys against the cage appears to be his entire gameplan these days. I think Roy Nelson is good enough to  stop him from doing that. Big Country is good enough to crush all of the mid- tier heavyweights, but will still lose to all of the elite ones. Kongo isn’t elite. Nelson by 1st round TKO.

DJ Marc with a "K": Kinda seems like these two would have fought each other by now. For whatever reason we are getting this fight now, and if I’m being honest, I’m just not that excited for it. I have a gut feeling that this will actual turn out to be a short but awesome fight but my head keeps telling me this might be a bit of a snoozer as the fight takes place mostly in the clinch, against the cage, with little to no damage being done. Roy by decision.

Picking Nelson: Unanimous
Picking Kongo:

Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis vs Vinny Magalhaes 

DJ Marc with a "K": If this fight hits the ground it could get real interesting, real fast. If it stays standing or they wind up in the clinch repeatedly, I think this fight could look a lot like last weeks Cormier v. Mir fight. I’m giving the edge to Phil who has been fighting top competition while Vinny has been trying to raise ranking on his e-bay account by selling off past accomplishment. Phil by decision.

Doctor Law: A fight that started with a Twitter beef….that’s some exciting sh*t. I’m pretty torn on this one. One hand, I’m a big fan of Phil Davis’s. Fans of the podcast know this, but Stefan and I met Phil Davis years ago at a Strikeforce event. He was a super nice guy and was wearing a shirt that had “I’m a keeper” written on it. On the other hand, I also like Vinny quite a bit. He’s generally a really funny guy and I tried to buy his M1 title from him. My little brother is also convinced that Vinny is going to destroy Phil. On the third hand (I’m special this way); I think this fight is going to be pretty bad. Great wrestler vs. world champion BJJ practitioner = crappy stand-up battle. I’m going to go with Phil winning this one as Stefan, Marc and I spend the fight looking up showtimes for “Pain and Gain.” Davis by decision.

Lavender Gooms: Submission specialist versus a wrestler so that clearly means we’ll be blessed with 15 minutes of awkward stand-up  If Davis does get it to the ground, he’ll need to be careful getting caught but should be able to ride to a very boring decision. Davis by decision.

Kid Presentable: On the chance that this becomes the dreaded bad kickboxing fight between two grapplers I'm really hoping that Phil shows some improvement. His development of setting up his punches and kicks has left a lot to be desired. That said, I love this guy and my only regret is that I didn't hug him even more when I first met him in San Jose a few years back. Vinny can be devastating on the ground but I think the stats show that world class wrestling can cancel out world class jiu jitsu. I think both will fail in their attempt to submit the other, but Phil will look better in the process. Mr. Wonderful by being so wonderful.

Picking Davis: "Hey Mr. Wonderful, oh you're so incredible..."
Picking Magalhaes:

Jim Miller vs. Pat "Bam Bam" Healy 
image via enlapelia.com

Doctor Law: I feel bad for Pat Healy on this one. He was going to get a shot at Gilbert Melendez’s belt in Strikeforce, but injuries forced that fight to get scraped. Now his return fight to the UFC is against Jim Miller. Miller is better than Pat Healy at everything. I really don’t see a scenario for Bam Bam doesn’t get totally worked in this fight. I guess a positive is that he’s on the main card of a big PPV. Probably not so great that at least 2 million people are going to see him get his ass whooped. Miller by submission in round 2.

Kid Presentable: Battle of the angry bearded white men. Healy should have gotten his payday in a title fight against Gilbert, but instead he is probably going to lose on a smaller stage to a very well rounded fighter. Healy can grind with the best of him, but this is a fight where Miller is probably just a bit better at everything. Miller by decision.

DJ Marc with a "K": Pat has had a pretty decent run while fighting for StrikeForce and we have seen most of the StrikeForce guys come over and do very well against the UFC stable. This fight though seems to be in Miller’s favor. I think Miller just brings in more tools and experience, while I wouldn’t count Healy out of the fight, I think hes a long shot. Miller by TKO 3rd 1:41.

Lavender Gooms: You know you’re going to get a good fight when Jim Miller gets in the cage and Healy is game to put on a show. But Miller is one of the upper echelon fighters in a stacked division. This will be an easy victory. Miller by decision.

Picking Miller: It's Miller Time.
Picking Healy:

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