Dec 8, 2012

UFC on FOX 5 Predictions

The Itsmmazing crew (minus yours truly Lavender Gooms) travels to Seattle, the land of the Space Needle, McDreamy, and Frasier Crane to watch the possible coronation of a Diaz brother.  Much like all of you, I expect pictures.

Undisputed UFC Lightweight Championship
Benson Henderson (c) v. Nate Diaz
Image via Wikipedia
Kid PresentableIt wasn't the brother we were expecting, but a Diaz is finally fighting for a UFC title. It has been a weird ride in the lead up and build up to this fight because I have long been an avid supporter of Bendo through his time in the WEC and now UFC. Yet here we are and I will be riding absolutely against him. ItsMMAzing is 50% sports blog, 50% Diaz brother fan club. We ride for the 209. More than anything I am hoping and expecting to see a battle in every facet of the mma game. Part of what makes both these guys so enjoyable as fighters is the are proficient if not great at every aspect of the game. Bendo uses speed and unconventional Tae Kwon Do techniques, while Nate brings that classic Diaz boxing style. You have a good wrestler who has proven unchokeable and unsubmitable and the Gracie black belt. Bendo has never been an easy out but recently Nate has stepped up his game to a whole different level. At some point Bendo will start to take one too many shots and will lose position in a scramble and from there the unthinkable will happen, Bendo will be put to sleep, and Diaz brother will hold the gold. Nate by submission round 4.

DJ Mark with a "K"This is easily a PPV worthy main event. Henderson got his first title defense out of the way and is facing one of the most skilled and toughest fighters in the lightweight division. Nate has really come into his own during his last couple of fights and has seemed to finally put all the pieces of his MMA game puzzle together. His stand up is vastly improved and he’s tightened up some aspects of his already outstanding ground game. Which is great because he’s going to have to come in completed prepared to take the belt away from Henderson. As a long time Diaz brothers fan I can’t pick against Nate here but I basically see this fight being a 50/50 call. There’s so many questions about how these two will stack up together I’m really just looking forward to seeing these two guys display their warrior spirits and put on a fight worthy of a UFC championship. Diaz late 4th round submission (RNC) 4:54

Lavender Gooms: I am going to try my best and be objective.  I am going to try my best to not predict this fight from my Diaz tinted glasses.  Nate Diaz has made quantum leaps in each of his fights since his return to light-weight.  Ravaged Gomi, made a very good kickboxer in Cerrone look foolish standing up and displayed gain strength in the clinch and a nifty judo toss against Miller.  Diaz has had trouble with wrestlers in the past and Ben Henderson is a strong wrestler with good submission defense which doesn’t bode well for Diaz.  While Diaz will likely try and pressure Henderson for all five rounds, Henderson has displayed an ability to go the distance for a whole five rounds. This fight has the makings for a close fight and Henderson could very well win, but my loyalty lies in the 209 all the time.  Guess I can’t be objective.  Diaz by close decision(I know I have a better chance of riding a unicorn than him winning a close decision).

Picking Henderson-
Picking Diaz- All of us

Mauricio Rua v. Alexander Gustafsson

Kid PresentableYou have a major heat check match up here for both men. On the one hand Gus is the riser, on the cusp of contention. On the other Rua is checking to see if he lost a step or if he is still right there... he just happened to get rolled like everyone else in the division by Jon Jones. Shogun has proven he still has an iron chin, and it is tough to see where Gus will have the advantage. Gus likely has the better conditioning, and could do his best Dominic Cruz impression again to maybe wear out and out-point Shogun, but Shogun is too technically sound to not get his licks in as well. I believe Gus is a legit prospect, but at the same time I have been leaning more and more toward the old lions lately. Shogun by TKO round 2.

Image via Bleacher Report
DJ Mark with a "K"On paper I think this is a tough fight for Gustafsson, Shogun is easily the biggest name and toughest challenge he’s faced yet. Personally I feel like he might not be ready for Shogun just yet but at the same time I can easily see this being his coming out party into the top of the 205 division. My reservations on Gustafsson are mostly due from his last fight where he seemed to play it a little safer at times. I think Shogun will be able to use his low kicks to slow down Gustafsson and allow him to get in close and do more damage with his hands.  Gustafsson has the tools for an upset (in my mind, but not the bookmakers oddly enough) but I’m siding with shogun. Shogun TKO 2nd round  3:08

Lavender GoomsI have to ask a question. When did Shogun become washed up?  Because I can’t understand him being an underdog to Gustafsson.  I don’t just think he’s going to beat Gustafsson.  I think it won’t be close.  Shogun by TKO in 1st round.

Picking Rua- All of us
Picking Gustafsson-

BJ Penn v. Rory McDonald

Kid Presentable: Let’s get this out of the way real quick. Rory is the future. He is the next generation of fighters. He is kind of a poser. Nothing grinds my gears these days like a fake nerd. Adding floozies, some poorly scripted dialogue, and the jackass grin of a younger douchier Don Draper to a room with Rory, and it makes it tough to get behind this kid. BJ is the legend, seemingly with more to lose here than he has to win, but so far BJ is saying all the right things and looking the part as well for once. So much of me thinks this could be the coronation of Rory, but recently the holes that you saw in his stand up against Beautiful Che Mills makes me think Penn could capitalize on something here. But who am I really kidding, I just want to see more of BJ’s baby mama. Penn by submission round 1.

DJ Mark with a "K"This fight really pushes the card over the edge into pure awesomeness. BJ hasn’t fought since losing to Nick Diaz and pretty much retired from the sport. Unsurprisingly this retirement was short lived as life outside of the spotlight isn’t a place BJ can rest easy. He’s got a hell of a welcoming party waiting for him in Rory MacDonald. Rory has been marked as the future of the sport but unlike so many others that get tagged with that status he is actually living up to the hype. On paper BJ has the world against him, fighting a younger, bigger, stronger and techinally strong opponent in Rory. However BJs been there before so I don’t think he has any nerves fighting a guy at Rory, in fact BJ’s in better physical and mental shape then I’ve seen in a long time. My heart says BJ my mind says Rory I already picked Diaz with my heart so I’m splitting the difference and picking Rory here. Rory by Decision

Lavender Gooms: There’s a rule I was taught by Bobby when I first started watching MMA.  If BJ has abs, it means he’s been trying.  And he’s been trying, it’s going to be a short night for the other guy.  See YouTube video below.  Penn by decision.

Picking Penn- Gooms, Kid P, Dr Law
Picking McDonald- DJ Mark

Mike Swick v. Matt Brown

Kid Presentable: Relevant? No. Entertaining? Pretty damn well certain it will be. The ironically nicknamed Matt Brown has never been much for talent or athleticism, but he is your dying breed of fighter that is all heart and grit. Swick is another long time veteran of this category though so far his career has been ravaged by injuries in what should have been his prime. This is a fight that could quietly steal the show as it is two guys who really don’t have anything to lose, so why not go out and fight? And in a few years we’ll probably miss the days when guys like these two were still around. Swick by decision.

DJ Mark with a "K": This is a great opening fight to kick off what is, on paper, one of the best main cards UFC has put on in a while. Both guys always bring excitement to the octagon and while I think Swick has the better skill set Matt is a really tough guy to put down. Matt’s best chance in this one is to take it into deep waters and hope Swick gasses. Swick by decision.

Lavender GoomsWhile this fight isn’t nearly as sexy as the rest of the card, it’s free so I’ll be happy and watch it. This fight will be an exciting affair that’ll wet the appetites of the masses for the next three fights.  This is a pick’em fight but I think Swick is a slightly more well rounded fighter so I’ll give him the nod.  Swick by decision.

Picking Swick- All of us
Picking Brown-

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