Oct 12, 2012

UFC 153 Predictions

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Anderson Silva v. Stephan Bonnar

Doctor Law: So it’s come to this. The main event was supposed to be Aldo v. Edgar for the featherweight title, but Aldo got hit my car while on his motorcycle. The greatest fighter ever versus Stephan Bonnar sounds like a ridiculous mismatch…and it is. Whatever. I think this is going to be a fun fight. Bonnar has a good chin and keeps going forward. The second part of that statement insures that we are going to see this gentleman get knocked the f*ck out. The good chin that Bonnar possesses will make it get to the second round at least. Anderson via Death Valley Driver (probably strikes…TKO).

Kid Presentable: Was it so long ago already that people were sh*tting on Nick Diaz wanting to have a non title mega fight with Anderson, thinking he was not deserving? So we get this instead. No disrespect to Bonnar, I still get a kick every time he channels Batman and does the American Psycho pose-off. But at least they haven't been bs'ing us on what this fight is: a lopsided fight that would be a historic upset otherwise. The spot with Bonnar getting tips from Griffin on how to fight Anderson pretty much sums it up, there is no real area where Bonnar is better than Anderson. Hell, there is no area where he is even within scoring distance of Anderson. Part of me wants to think the fix is in here and Anderson is going to throw this fight, and if that happens I will say I told you so, but otherwise I expect a show for the crowd. Anderson by KO round 2

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DJ Mark with a “K”: In all honestly this fight makes no logical sense, however that doesn't mean it’s not a fun fight. Personally, I miss fights like this. UFC has positioned itself as a sport where only the top contenders get shots at champions but for some reason when Anderson fights at Light Heavyweight they make these type of match ups and I love it. It’s pretty much fact that Anderson is pound for pound the best fighter in the world (Jones is steadily right behind him) but since the vast majority of his fights are for his MW title he has to be carefully not to make any mistakes. Here there’s less pressure and hopefully that will result in a more relaxed Anderson and make for much more exciting fight. Add in the fact that Bonnar is just a game fighter and you have the makings of something really exciting. The end result is all but certain but in MMA you never know. Anderson by KO 3:46 into the 1st round via punches and thai clinch knee. 

Lavender Gooms: So after laughing hysterically and uncontrollably for a solid 10 minutes thinking about the prospect of Silva losing to Bonnar, thought about the what it would mean if Silva lost to Bonnar. It would be the biggest upset in the history of the sport by far. If Bonnar was somehow able to defeat Silva, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say David’s win over Goliath has nothing on it, doesn't hold a candle to it. Of course in this alternate reality where Bonnar wins, Heroes didn't suck after one season and the Jets wouldn't disappoint me so much. Silva by decision. 

Picking Silva: Everybody…in the world
Picking Bonnar: 

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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira v. Dave Herman 

Doctor Law: Here comes an ass kicking. Seriously, I like Pee Wee, but I don’t see how he wins this fight. A couple of things: 1) I don’t think Pee Wee trains 2) I don’t think Pee Wee cares 3) Pee Wee talked sh*t about BJJ 4) Pee Wee is going to get tapped out. I think Big Nog is out to make a couple of points in this fight and among them are that he’s not finished and that BJJ actually works. The second one seems to be a stupid thing to have to prove, but Pee Wee’s dumb ass has been going around saying that BJJ simply doesn’t work. Again, he’s getting tapped out. Big Nog by 2nd round submission.

Kid Presentable: Can I be real for a minute? (Be real real son...) Peewee is not very good. He is fun to watch, he is a fun interview, but he is just a tad short on the talent needed to win here. I thought Big Nog has been shot for a little while now, but last time he was in Brazil he came to life with the crowd and but Schaub out cold. Will lightning strike twice? I don't think it really matters. A beaten down and battle-weary Big Nog is still loads more capable than Herman on his best day. As long as Big Nog doesn't have jiu jitsu hubris again and go for an unnecessary submission attempt, his boxing should take care of business here. Having been put out by Big Country and Struve in recent fights, Herman can't take too many shots to the dome. Big Nog by TKO round 1.

DJ Mark with a “K”: I think this is a good fight for Big Nog, Dave is a capable Heavyweight that he can’t sleep on but should have all the tools he needs to get a W here. I see Big Nog getting the better of the hands and clinch work in the first round and then finally getting it to mat and slapping on a submission in the second. Personally I really like Dave Herman and I hope a loss here doesn’t get him cut from the UFC but I feel he still needs to develop in a few areas, in till then he isn’t really ready for the level of competition in the UFC. Big Nog 4:08 into the 2nd round Submission, let’s say rear naked choke. 

Lavender Gooms: We last saw Noguiera getting his arm snapped like a twig by Frank Mir. This makes me wonder about Big Nog’s health and durability. Even so, Noguiera has too many weapons for Herman to handle. Whether it be his boxing ability or his BJJ, Herman will have too much to contend with against the wily ol’ Nog. Noguiera by submission in 3rd. 

Picking Nogeuiera: All of us
Picking Herman:

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Glover Teixeira v. Fabio Maldonado

Doctor Law: Glover versus Shogun sounded like fun, but Shogun didn't want it. Glover versus Rampage sounded pretty awesome, but Rampage got injured. For a third try, we could do worse than a standup battle between Glover and Fabio Maldonado. I am very interested in this fight because of that. Fabio has some crisp boxing and should provide a decent challenge to Glover. While I do believe Glover will win, I don’t think it’ll be that easy for him. Fabio won’t go down without a fight. Glover by 3rd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: Man... with this fight I am disappointed like every child who receives an educational toy on Christmas. Fabio has fun fights and his use of body shots and boxing are always a treat, but we were finally supposed to get a Rampage fight where his opponent came to trade shots. It was also supposed to serve as Glover's introduction into the world of contenders. As fun as this should be still, it is Glover's fight to lose as his all around standup is superior and his one shot KO power can be scary. Fabio is pretty tough though, and I think he can have some moments himself, but he is still going to get battered. Glover by KO round 2. 

DJ Mark with a “K”: While it’s too bad Rampage got hurt and can’t fight Teixeira here I think Maldonado is a decent replacement. While Maldonado doesn’t have a big name this should make for a pretty decent fight. Expect a good stand up war with Teixeira getting the nod. Teixeira by TKO 1:01 into the 3rd round.

Lavender Gooms: I know I’ve only seen Glover fight once, but I’m buying in. I am all aboard the Glover Teixeira train. I’m pretty sure I tried ranking him in the ItsMMAzing top 10 after his one fight in the UFC. This will be an interesting match-up to watch. Maldonado likes to get on the inside with his punches and Teixeira boxing mirrors Maldonado’s to an extent. However, Teixeira’s a different animal compared to Maldonado. His game is more well rounded and he fights like a beast. Maldonado will stand in there like a Boss but get thumped down. Teixeira by KO in 2nd.

Picking Glover: All of us
Picking Maldonado

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Jon Fitch v. Erick Silva 

Doctor Law: Everybody is picking Silva (see below), but I’m going to go against the grain and pick the man not so affectionately referred to by the guy sitting in front of Kid Presentable, DJ Mark and I at UFC 117 as “Fitch Ass Bitch.” This is a big test for Erick Silva as Fitch was the #2 welterweight in the world for about two years. It’s pretty obvious how this one will go. If Fitch can get Silva down, he’s going to win. One round of getting humped by Fitch is enough to make a guy tired for the next two. Silva hasn’t shown anything with regards to takedown defense so far (all of his fights have been very short), but Fitch is tenacious when looking for the takedown. I think he kills some of the hype. Fitch by decision 

Kid Presentable: Jon Fitch is the underdog? Brock Lesnar roamed the earth still last time that happened. I personally believe Silva is an absolute monster and a certain future title contender, but this is the exact kind of match that could give him trouble. Fitch is incredibly superior to what Brenneman offered up, but that fight showed that Silva will make you pay if you don't set up your takedowns well. At the same time though, watching Fight Factory, and simple MMA life in general... AKA is facing some dark times, and the only team on a rougher skid right now is Team Alpha Male. As I always say, I love everything about Jon Fitch save for his fighting style, and I want so much to be his fan. I hope he can regain form, but I roll with the rising prospect here. Silva by KO round 3.

DJ Mark with a “K”: I think we are starting to see the passing of the torch from one era of MMA to another. Now having said that I’m totally ready to eat my words and even feel I’m being a little quick to judge Joe Fitch as “past his prime in the UFC”. I’ve been known to buy too much into hype for young fighters but what can I say, I want to see the sport evolve and mature back into the era of guys that are always looking for the Kill. Silva can easily fall into the quicksand that is Jon Fitch’s fight style but I'm hoping Silva can explode all over Fitch’s style and earn the KO of the night. Silva 2:58 into the 1st round TKO.

Lavender Gooms: I hate when you go to an event and people yell and scream for the ref to stand fighters up as soon as they hit the ground. It enrages me to the ends of the earth that some fans don’t understand working on the ground to get better position is a big part of the game. I think all of this…..until Jon Fitch is fighting. I know for a fact Fitch will do NOTHING but lay on the guy for the whole round if he’s allowed to. No analysis here, solely picking Fitch to lose because I can’t stand him. Silva by submission in 1st. 

Picking Silva: Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms
Picking Fitch: Dr. Law

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Phil Davis v. Wagner Prado 

Doctor Law: The first fight between these two men ended very quickly due to an errant eye poke by Davis. I was honestly OK with them just letting the no contest stand and not doing this again. This fight doesn’t do anything for Phil Davis if he wins and Davis isn’t the type of opponent on which Prado can show off his skills. That being said, I think Phil takes this one. Take the man down, roughs him up, goes to the “Mr. Wonderful,” fails, gets the decision. Davis by decision. 

Kid Presentable: October is breast cancer awareness month. The NFL is honoring this by wearing all pink errryyythang accessories wise. Towels, gloves, cleats, arm bands etc. Pink on pink on pink man. Well you know what Mr. Goodell? Mr. Wonderful has been doing that for almost his whole fight career. Hipster Davis was wearing pink before the month you were supposed to wear pink. This is a nice way of ranting that Phil is going to do what he does and that is out wrestle the crap out of an overmatched opponent. I would love to see some step forwards in his striking ability, cause that's what is holding him back from cracking into the top of the division, but I won't hold my breath for that. Davis by decision. 

DJ Mark with a “K”: Since they didn’t get the chance to finish their first fight due to an accidental eye poke I’m glad to see these two guys get the chance to clear the record books. I slightly remember being some what impressed with Prado in the little amount we saw him in there last fight. However, I’m still siding with Phil on this. Even though he hasn’t developed as quickly as I would have hoped I feel he can still control the fight. Phil by somewhat lackluster decision. 

Lavender Gooms: Davis would have won the first fight if he hadn’t poked Prado’s eye in August. Sticking to my guns this time around. If he gets the takedown, Davis should be able to do whatever he wants. Davis by TKO in 2nd. 

Picking Davis: All of us
Picking Prado:

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Demian Maia v. Rick Story 

Doctor Law: Anybody who regularly listens to our podcast or reads this blog knows my feelings about Demian Maia. The man specializes in making me look like a complete dumbass. You know what, it isn’t going to happen this time. I have something working on my side: Rick Story isn’t that great. Maia looked good for the minute he was fighting Stun Gun a few months ago and I honestly believe he was going to finish the Judo practitioner soon even if the injury had not occurred. Story gets choked. Maia by submission, round 1.

Kid Presentable: Maia's grade since dropping down to welterweight is still an incomplete since his fight with Stun Gun resulted in a freak injury stoppage. What I can say is that it was at least nice to Maia charge in and go for a takedown for the first time ever since I started noticing him. I am only familiar with the version of Maia that sucks and got knocked out immediately after Dr. Law made his hype video for him. That's right Bob. Every Single Damn Time. Story is a little tank of a grinder though. He really isn't good at anything, just tough and strong willed as all hell. I worry that his strength and wrestling will at the very least be able to negate Maia's ability to get the takedown, but I will take a stab and say the home country crowd helps Maia charge up that spirit bomb. It will probably be ugly at times when Maia goes in, but I think over the course of the fight he will take Story's back, and he will finish the fight. Maia by RNC round 2.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Maia looked awesome in his last fight were he was debuting as a welterweight. Seems like in this weight class he can really utilize his skills much better. I feel like Rick Story is a strong a fighter but at some point he’s going to play right into Maia’s game plan which is to get the fight on the floor. Even if the fight doesn’t go there Maia as shown he’s capable of getting a decision win on his feet if he has to. Maia by submission (choke of some kind) 2:40 in the second round. 

Lavender Gooms: To put it nicely, Maia has been disappointing in the last year. Perhaps he remembers that he is Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizard and puts it to use against Story. Probably not. I’ll still hold out hope. Maia by submission in 1st. 

Picking Maia: All of us
Picking Story:

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