Jun 21, 2012

UFC on FX 4 Predictions

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Gray Maynard v. Clay Guida

Doctor Law: This card is headlined by a fun fight (does Clay Guida have any other kind) between Guida and Maynard. Guida is coming off of a clear decision loss (stop raising your hand at the end of every fight Guida; it makes you seem delusional) against current 155 lb champ Ben Henderson. Maynard is coming off of 2 fights with Frankie Edgar. I think Clay is in some serious trouble in this fight. The only place he has the advantage is in the gas tank department, which could be a factor in this five round fight. However, Maynard is ever improving and I expect him to be in great shape after moving to AKA earlier this year. Guida is hard to finish, but he isn’t above getting choked. Maynard by 3rd round submission.

Kid Presentable: Poor Mr. Maynard, you were so close to being the champ twice, now it might be a long uphill climb. Gray can re-establish himself in the upper echelon of the division with a win here. To be fair though, the often labeled "boring" fighter showed vast improvements in his boxing against former champ Edgar. This should be a nightmare matchup for Guida who gets by on motor and heart more often than technical skill. Guida is a solid wrestler but is likely to struggle mightily against the power wrestling style of Maynard. I think Gray has the power to tko Guida, but that is a feat rarely seen, so I will go with the much safer call of a dominant decision for Gray. Maynard by UD.

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DJ Mark with a “K”: Maynard comes back after being knocked out for the first time in his career, kinda, if you don’t count the time he DDT’ed himself against Rob Emerson. Maynard is still in the top five for lightweight and a solid win over Guida here will keep him there. On paper Maynard has all the advantages, heavier hands and better wrestling. Guida’s best shot is to try and grind Maynard and get him tired for the later rounds, I don’t see that happening. Maynard TKO (GnP) 4th round

Lavender Gooms: For those six people who have been reading this blog since November, you’ve probably realized by now that my criteria for liking a fighter can range from their general attitude(the Diaz brothers) to their choice in hair color (Louis Gaudinout). My reasons for who I have in my hate list are just as fickle. Maynard logging a complaint against Guida’s hair is a punk move. Half of the reason I love watching Guida fight is because he looks like a Wartime Jesus action figure…and Jesus doesn’t cornrow his hair. Maynard’s only loss is to the former champ and he should be able to utilize his wrestling to control the always effervescent Guida. While on my hate list, I still think he wins this fight. Maynard by decision.

Picking Maynard: All of us
Picking Guida:

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Spencer Fisher v. Sam Stout

Doctor Law: A trilogy fight that no one was really asking for, but I doubt anybody is complaining about. The first two fights between these two veterans have been highly entertaining 3 round decisions and I doubt this one will be any different. I honestly wanted to pick Fisher because I didn’t this was a one-sided enough fight for all of us to pick the same fighter, but in his last few fights he has had the look in his eyes that says “I’m done.” He’s lost 5 of 6 and is very likely fighting for his job on Friday night. You know what? Screw it. Spencer Fisher wants to keep making a decent income. Fisher by decision.

Kid Presentable: This fight was probably more relevant several years ago, and it seems like for Fisher's final fight Joe Silva is hoping for the bout that helped Sam Stout make a name for himself. What you get here are solid, decently-rounded mid card level vets. I expect it to be a standup fight where each fighter will have their moments, but I give the slight edge to Stout. Hands of Pillo... I mean Stone will probably not be able to finish Fisher, and I could see these guys scrapping for a fight of the night type bout for Fisher's swan song. Stout by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This fight seems kinda odd to me. Don’t get me wrong, I like both of these guys and their past two fights against each other have been very exciting. I just think it’s weird to have a trilogy with two guys who aren’t ranked in the top ten (maybe not even top 20) in a very deep division. Never the less it should be a good one. I’m picking Stout here because I think the wear of a super long and productive career for Fisher is starting to take it’s toll. Stout by split decision.

Lavender Gooms: This is the third fight for these two men, with Fisher winning the last matchup that garnered “Fight of the Night.” I think it’ll be different this time. I expect to be entertained and for the fight to go the distance. They’re both coming off losses (oddly enough both to Thiago Tavares). Stout, however has looked better in his last few fights so I’m giving him the decision. Stout by decision.

Picking Fisher: Dr. Law
Picking Stout: Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms

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Brian Ebersole v. T.J. Waldburger

Doctor Law: Brian Ebersole is going to have to do his best to make me forget his last fight. He had to the only boring fight on what was a thrilling UFC 140 card (Jones making Machida faceplant, Big Nog’s arm being snapped in half, etc). I’m not sure this is the fight that he’s going to able to do it in. T.J. isn’t a bum and he is the first young fighter the UFC has matched Ebersole up with. However, that’s not enough of a reason to pick against a man who knows how to do a sweet cartwheel kick. Ebersole by decision.

Kid Presentable: The Hairrow returns after a less than impressive previous outing. Ebersole's first fights were quite entertaining but most recently had to resort to a decision grinding win which has his stock down a little bit. As Waldburger is a grappler himself, I think Ebersole's stronger wrestling pedigree will be able to cancel out any submission threat T.J. might present. I'm hoping this fight will play out more toward Ebersole's fight with Dennis Hallman (sans the exposed balls fiasco) where Ebersole uses his superior wrestling to take top control and gain a T/KO by G n' P. Ebersole by TKO first round.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Brian’s been on a bit of a tear since getting in the UFC. His fight against Lytle opened up a lot of eyes to Brian and he’s made the most of the opportunity going 3-0 inside the octagon. TJ hasn’t done the same, his fought multiple times in the UFC but I sure as hell couldn’t remember who he was. I think we see Brian score a clean decision here and he then moves on to the mid to high tier fighters. Brian via unanimous decision.

Lavender Gooms: Waldburger has won three of his first four fights in the UFC, with his only loss to future #1 contender Johny Hendricks. But he faces a tough test in Ebersole. the Ol’ Coyote of 60-plus pro fights. The veteran adds to his win total against the young thundercat. Ebersole by decision

Picking Ebersole: All of us
Picking Waldburger:

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Ross Pearson v. Cub Swanson

Doctor Law: This is going to be a good battle. Pearson realized he could make 145 pounds and that his title shot chances are infinitely better at the lighter weight class. Seriously, there is like a 7 contender backup at 155 lbs. Cub Swanson is arguably the most inconsistent fighter Zuffa has under roster He has never won or lost consecutive fights while a member of the UFC or WEC…and he won his last one. Combine that with the fact that Pearson got popped for a DUI and probably doesn’t want to follow that up with a bad performance and I have to go with “The Real Deal” here. Pearson by 2nd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: Pearson is in a long line of not all that impressive TUF champions, though his fights are generally decently entertaining as he is primarily a kick boxer. Though Greg Jackson's camp is the bane of my mma existence, Cub Swanson is a guy who will favor standing and put on some awesome fights. He may have been on the receiving of some highlight reel knockouts, but he has also provided some of his own. While Pearson is very technically sound, Cub actually has the power to really hurt Ross, and I would say this also has the potential for being fight of the night. Cub by TKO 2nd

DJ Mark with a “K”: Ross made a successful debut at 145 and is getting a little tougher test here in Cub Swanson. I’m hoping this will turn into a decent little kickboxing contest as both guys like to stand and have good technical skills. I’m going to give the nod here to Ross because I think he has the heavier hands but I think it’s kind of a tossup. Ross Pearson by dec.

Lavender Gooms: Ross Pearson recently said that he doesn’t see anyone in the featherweight division that he can’t beat. He might have forgotten Jose Aldo is champ at 145. Regardless of whether I think he’s smoking funny cigarettes or not, his statement rings true for the fighter who will be across the octagon from him on Friday. Quick night for Cub. Pearson by decision.

Picking Pearson: Dr. Law, DJ Mark, Gooms
Picking Swanson: Kid P

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