Feb 14, 2012

UFC on Fuel TV 1 Predictions

Image via UFC newsletter

Diego Sanchez v. Jake Ellenberger

Doctor Law: This should be a fun fight. Why? Because it’s Diego Sanchez v. anybody. The man doesn’t have boring fights, even when he gets his ass kicked (see: Diego v. BJ Penn at UFC 107. Diego hasn’t fought in about 11 months. He was scheduled to take on Matt Hughes in September, but he broke his hand. Before that, Diego “defeated” Martin Kampmann last March by beating up Martin’s hands with his face. That could be a dangerous strategy against Ellenberger, who hits very hard. If Jake can get passed Diego, he deserves a shot at Condit’s interim welterweight title. Sidenote, Diaz got f*cked by the judges at UFC 143. Completely, totally and incredibly f*cked. Ellenberger by decision.

Kid Presentable: Sanchez I used to like you. You seemed kinda crazy, but in an entertaining way. But then you became a little heavy, and were gifted a crap decision against Kampmann that lost me some money. But I guess I can't be too mad at you. Ellenberger, you won me money. So I love you for that. Jake is also setting himself up nicely in the division with a win here. Jake with a victory should absolutely get a crack at Condit's interim belt. They fought to a very arguable split decision in their first contest, and Ellenberger has been on a roll lately. It is a joke if Carlos sits out until GSP's return. What is the point of an interim title that never gets defended until the champion returns? Jake by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: This should be an entertaining fight, this I know. Diego comes to fight 100% of the time and he’s given some of the best fights in UFC history. Because of this it’s really confusing to me why I’m never excited for his fights. The up-side to this mentality is that I come in with low expectations and leave being blown away. Jake on the other hand has been on a run and a win here puts him in line with a select few for a title shot. This is a tough fight but I’m going to take Jake here, he’s got the momentum and he’ll need that and the kitchen sink to beat Diego but I think he’s got this one. Jake by Decision.

Image via mmamania.com
Lavender Gooms: Diego doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Sure there are only five people in this world who think he won that fight against Kampmann (him, three judges, and his mother….maybe). But something has to be said for taking a beating that made his face look like rare puppy chow and still plowing forward. While I give Sanchez dap and props for taking a large amount of punches to his grill, that better not be his game plan this time around. Ellenberger packs some heavy hands which will test Sanchez’s ability to take a punch again. Sanchez’s best shot of winning will be to avoid taking a lot of shots, and get the fight to ground. Ellenberger likely won’t be able to knock Sanchez out. If Ellenberger can’t KO “The Dream” (what a dumb nickname), Sanchez comes out of this scrap victorious. Sanchez by decision.

Picking Sanchez: Gooms
Picking Ellenberger: Dr. Law, Kid P, DJ Mark

Stefan Struve v. Dave Herman

Doctor Law: Ah yes, two tall white men who like knocking people out. Well, 1 tall white guy and 1 giant white guy. Struve is coming off of submitting Pat Barry which was very unsurprising. Struve is very young, but I’m still waiting for him to “get it” in terms of his reach. The fact that people can get through his reach is really unacceptable at this point in the game. Herman beat John-Olav Einemo last June in a sloppy brawl. He was supposed to fight in October, but failed a preliminary drug test for weed. Herman also famously said jiu jitsu doesn’t work and no one gets caught unless they don’t have any idea what they’re doing. Him getting submitted would look pretty funny, right? Struve by 2nd round submission.

Kid Presentable: Peewee is a taller and lankier dude at heavyweight, but he sure won't look it standing next to the ivory tower. I am not entirely sure what to make of Herman's skill set as half the time he looked like he was just dicking around in his last fight against Einemo. But his standup proved to be quite adequate and solid as he got the better of the exchanges. With each fight Struve takes, I keep hoping he will control the range better but then he just gets cracked. No one collapses quite as epically as Struve, nor have many been on the receiving ends of such devastating knockouts so soon in their career. Herman is a very solid heavyweight, but I still like to believe Struve is the better prospect between the two and think he can get this win. Oh, and we're both named Stefan, so that's the real reason for the pick. Struve by TKO 2nd round.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Now this is a fight. Dave made a nice big splash with his UFC debut win over Einemo and I think he’ll get his biggest win here over Stefan Struve. I think Dave will be able to out muscle Struve on the cage and I think he even carries the heavy hands here too. Stefan’s best bet is to slap on a submission that, while very possible, I just don’t see happening. Herman by Decision.

Lavender Gooms: This should be a hell of a fight. Herman will try his hardest to send Struve’s head from Omaha to Lincoln. It won’t be a surprise when Struve tries to get the fight to the ground and submit him. I won’t be surprised when he gets that done. Struve by submission in the 1st round.

Picking Struve: Dr. Law, Kid P, Gooms
Picking Herman: DJ Mark

Aaron Simpson v. Ronny Markes

Doctor Law: Aaron Simpson’s fighting style is boring and he’s too old to learn new stuff. He’s going to take down Markes and hold him there until the referee stands them up. Then he’s going to do it again. And again. Simpson by decision.

Kid Presentable: Dear A-train, you never should have started a gym with Bader and CB. Go get real gyms. I think I will probably be playing the UFC video game during this stretch. I'm looking forward to the Diaz brothers each having two titles in my universe of things. Simpson by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Aaron Simpson has been doing good as a small time gate keeper for the Middleweight division. His losses are against the next tier of fighters in the UFC so the real question here is if Ronny is in the class above the Aaron Simpsons of the world. My money is on that he’s not. Simpson by Decision.

Lavender Gooms: Simpson has looked good in his last three fights. I barely remember watching Markes fight. That’s probably not a good sign. Simpson by Unanimous Decision

Picking Simpson: Dr. Law, Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms
Picking Markes:

Stipe Miocic v. Philip De Fries

Doctor Law: This fight shouldn’t be on TV. Stipe and De Fries are coming off of wins in which didn’t impress anybody (except Joe Silva apparently). You don’t reward mediocrity. Miocic tried to fool me with his Crocop shorts. He then proceeded to have a boring fight with Joey Beltran…which I thought was impossible. They should be showing Jonathan Brookins v. Vagner Rocha in place of this fight. Miocic by decision.

Kid Presentable: Two prospects in the shallowest of shallow divisions collide. Stipe was sold to me as the guy with the Croatian name and the Crocop shorts, but is a wrestler from Ohio. Stipe did not look particularly impressive in his debut fight for the UFC. It was a clear win, but he did not stand out in any regard. Hopefully it was just first fight jitters. Stipe by decision.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Yeah… While I think Stipe is entertaining enough I don’t really understand why this is on the main card. However, this is a Fuel card and match ups like this getting on live TV aren’t all that rare really. At least it’s a HW fight which can often be more entertaining as the fights have a higher chance of ending suddenly. Stipe by TKO in the 3rd round.

Lavender Gooms: I honestly haven’t seen either of these guys fight. However, Miocic has a wrestling background, was a former Golden Gloves champ and has won five of his fights by knockout. Give me the dude with the hand skills. Miocic by TKO in 2nd round.

Picking Miocic: Dr. Law, Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms
Picking De Fries:

T.J. Dillashaw v. Walel Watson

Doctor Law: Dillashaw was my pick to win the Ultimate Figther and he got close. Then John Dodson knocked him the hell out. Walel Watson is a good fighter, but I think TJ is going to be too much for him. Dillashaw will take him down (it’s what Team Alpha Male does) and impose his will on him. Dillashaw by 3rd round TKO.

Kid Presentable: The Ultimate Fighter runner up returns. I did not think he would win the show, but as he was quite young still expect him to have a very outstanding career. Built in true Alpha Male fighting fashion, T.J. will likely wrestle/gnp his way to victory. Bonus note, cute girlfriend T.J. Dillashaw by TKO 2nd round.

DJ Mark with a “K”: Even though T.J. didn’t win this last season of the Ultimate Fighter I still think he could be a force in the Bantamweight division. Walel Watson already has had his UFC Debut but this is a bigger fight and he’ll have to come in peak condition to pull out a win against someone as well rounded as T.J. I don’t see it happening. T.J.by decision.

Lavender Gooms: The UFC is really bringing it for a regular cable card. On paper at least three of these fights should be highly entertaining to watch, starting with this one. Before his fight against John Dodson in the TUF 14 finale, Dillashaw displayed impressive wrestling and showed himself to be a good prospect as a bantamweight. He’s going to have trouble against Watson (who got hosed in his last fight), a fighter who can bring it wherever the fight might go. As the taller fighter, Watson will attempt to use his reach, but I think T.J. will be able to get inside and get the takedowns. Dillashaw gets his first UFC victory. Dillashaw by Decision.

Picking Dillashaw: Dr. Law, Kid P, DJ Mark, Gooms
Picking Watson:

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